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Steven I posted an update
Nelson is an amazing player and an exceptional teacher. I love the course. But I did find this which somewhat contradicts what he said about being over 1500 puts you in the 96% percentile (granted, he said based on chess.com). Not trying to be ultra-critical; just want people to realize that if they reach 1500, there may be more people above you than you thought.
The percentage of all chess players with an Elo rating over 1500 depends on the population being analyzed—whether it’s online platforms like Chess.com or Lichess, FIDE-rated players, or USCF players. Here’s an approximate breakdown:
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FIDE-Rated Players
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The average FIDE rating is around 1400, meaning that players rated above 1500 are stronger than about 60-65% of all FIDE-rated players.
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Less than 35-40% of FIDE players are over 1500.
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USCF-Rated Players
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The median USCF rating is also around 1400, so players above 1500 are in the top 40% or so.
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Online Chess Platforms (Chess.com, Lichess, etc.)
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Online ratings are inflated compared to FIDE and USCF ratings. On Chess.com:
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Rapid and Blitz ratings of 1500+ put a player in roughly the top 25-30% of active players.
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On Lichess, the percentile might be slightly lower due to rating inflation.
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General Conclusion:
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Among all chess players worldwide (including casual and club players), fewer than 10% have a true strength above 1500.
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Among FIDE and USCF-rated players, about 35-40% are above 1500.
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On Chess.com and Lichess, players above 1500 are in roughly the top 25-30%.
3 Comments-
Just curious, if I look under my stats on chess.com and click on “Rapid”, it tells me that roughly 80% of the players have lower ratings than me. I am well short of a 1500 rating. Where did you get the data for the estimate on chess.com?
Certainly not going to question the FIDE and USCF rating estimates, as those groups are self selected for stronger ratings.
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I asked ChatGPT to do research
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FIDE and USCF info is likely pretty close to accurate, but not what it said about online. In the 1200 range you’re at about 92% on chess.com. Chess.com and FIDE ratings are relatively similar for the same person typically from what I’ve researched.. the reason the percentile is so different is there’s literally millions more beginners joining chess.com and oversaturating the low end compared with those more “serious” about chess and taking the time for OTB tournaments.
Lichess uses 1500 as the mean, so the same person will be usually be several hundred points higher on Lichess than chess.com.
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